Il ciclo nodale lunare di 18.6 anni, ENSO Report message

Ilya Serykh to you, Apr 24, 2020
Dear Dr. Franco,

We emphasize that the main periods of El Niño’s rhythms are similar to 
subharmonics (2.4, 3.6 and 4.8 years) of the so-called Chandler wobble (of 
the ~1.2 year period) in the Earth’s pole motion. Using satellite data on 
altitudes and temperature of the sea surface we show that a wave (called the 
oceanic Pole tide) in the Pacific ocean which is generated by this wobble can 
trigger El Niño. This tide propagates eastward within a temperate latitude 
belt. Its period is equal to about 14 months. Reaching the North America coast, 
the tide transforms into a surf, and the wave of this surf moves in the 
direction of the Panama Isthmus. Combined with the simultaneous strengthening 
of the north-eastern trade winds that occurs during the autumn shift of the 
Intertropical Convergence Zone to the south, this surf wave excites the El 
Niño anomalies. The further westward movement of the surf wave is traced in 
the AVISO SLA and NOAA OI SST data up to the coasts of Indonesia archipelago. 
It is found that some secondary waves alternately brake away from the surf 
wave and move to north- and southward. These secondary waves are capable to 
affect the equatorial upwelling that is important for the El Niño - Southern 
Oscillation processes.
Some other periods of El Niño’s rhythms are seen at the super-harmonics of 
the Luni-Solar nutation (of the ~18.6 year period), and combinational harmonics 
of the Schwabe’s (Hale’s) solar activity cycle. Because of the 
incommensurability of their periods all these forces affect the ocean-atmosphere 
system in inappropriate time moments. It is proven that the power spectra of 
the ENSO indices are not continuous but discrete in their character. As a 
result, the ENSO dynamics can be described as strange but nonchaotic attractor 
(SNA) in the quasi-periodically forced dynamical systems. Thus, one can 
conclude that the dynamics of ENSO is predictable with no limit in principle.

This is our new publications on the subject:

Serykh I.V., Sonechkin D.M. Nonchaotic and globally synchronized short-term 
climatic variations and their origin // Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 
2019. Vol. 137. No. 3-4. pp 2639–2656. 
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-02761-0

Serykh I.V., Sonechkin D.M., Byshev V.I., Neiman V.G., Romanov Yu.A. Global 
Atmospheric Oscillation: An Integrity of ENSO and Extratropical Teleconnections 
// Pure and Applied Geophysics. 2019. Vol. 176. No. 8. pp 3737–3755. 
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02182-8

Serykh I.V., Sonechkin D.M. El Niño forecasting based on the global atmospheric 
oscillation // International Journal of Climatology. 2020. 
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6488

Best regards, Ilya.


Franco Zavatti Apr 26, 2020
Dear Ilya,
thank you very much for your comments on my blog-post about the Agosta's (2014) 
findings of the 18.6 yr lunar "signature" I did not know before his paper.
And also my thanks for the references to your latest papers I'll read with
interest.

By the way, I'm an old astronomer (from the Department of Astronomy, Bologna
University), retired in 2011, who changed his interest to climatology in 2012.
So, I never studied anything about Climatology and consider myself an amateur
in that field (also if, in the meanwhile I published two peer review papers
in climatology, one of them in collaboration with the National Wine Agency
of Georgia, Tbilisi [Science of The Total Environment Volume 635, 
1 September 2018, Pages 1240-1254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.4.175], 
along with 148 blogposts [187 at the date of publication of this letter]).

I think I agree with almost all you write about El Nino spectral peaks 
(included the harmonics of the Chandler wobble) but two aspects:
1)The 18.6 yr is not, in my experience, an ENSO spectral feature because my
spectra of ONI index and of all the Nino regions don't find such a maximum
(and, please, note that I NEVER use the criterion of 90-99% in selecting the
power of the peaks to be used. Also, sorry, I don't know what a "super
harmonics" may be).
On the contrary, apart the Agosta's index (Argentina rain), I can find this 
spectral feature (18-20 yr period):
** in the rain of the catchements of 15 United Kingdom rivers (Wales and 
England);
** in the rain (from 800 to 2019 CE) along the Po River basin (Italy);
** in the cloud cover of the "LOW" region of the Austrian Database HISTALP
(not yet published), also if the same feature does not appear in the rain 
of the same region and the cloud cover of the "ALPIN" region shows a less clear
(a 17-21 yr range) feature;
** in the rain (R10mm index, i.e. the number of days in the year with daily
rain greater than or equal to 10mm) of 28 rain gauges in the WMO Region VI
(Europe and Middle East), reported in the ECA&D database. (This post will be
published at http://www.climatemonitor.it this week, I suppose, because I
don't know what Guido Guidi, the owner and a well known Italian Air Force
Lt. Col. meteorologist and a TV meteo forecaster, has programmed for it).
[added at the date of publication: Available here a complete list of 18-20 yr spectral peaks in
meteo-climatic time series.]
You can find a list of my publications with link to full texts at
http://www.zafzaf.it/zaf/pub-zaf.pdf

2) I don't know if the ENSO can be modeled (in principle, maybe) in the
real world: if so, the GCMs surely should include such model in their
code, while we don't observe that and can read the annual year-by-year ENSO
forecast by NOAA with very large uncertainties.

In any case I'm very glad for your comments that forced me to re-think my ideas.
My best regards
Franco
mail: ************