Yearly NOAA data and plots

00readme.txt (in Italian)        El Niño Evolution through Dec,2017 (NOAA, pdf)
Mikhail Voloshin's post at WUWT See also ••Runs Test (for non-randomness).   •Mureika WUWT article (Persistence).
NOAA Input Form for yearly data.

I compute the approximate Hurst exponent (H) reported in acf data files (.out) by the eq.(5) of the Koutsoyiannis', 2003 paper.
Please note that eq.(5) refers to an "aggregated process", what our processes may not be; so use the H-value only as a simple indication of the value the Hurst exponent really owns.
H=(1.+sqrt(1.+8.*acf(1)))/4
from:
acf(1)=H(2H-1) or eq.(5) when lag=1.
Please note that the auto-correlation function acf assumes values only between 0 and 1, so if acf(1) has negative value the computed H exponent is given as NaN (not a number).
We can consider the negative acf value as a fluctation around zero and assign zero-value to it: in such a case the Hurst exponent is 0.5 and identifies a not-autocorrelated series which can be managed with normal statistics.

PlotsOrig
yeartemptemp datacfmem
2011 png pdf dat out out
2012 png pdf dat out out
2013 png pdf dat out out
2014 png pdf dat out out
2015 png pdf dat out out
2016 png pdf dat out out
2017 png pdf dat out out
2018 png pdf dat out out
2019 png pdf dat out out
2020 png pdf dat out out
ACF Obspngpdf
PlotsDiff
yeartemptemp datacfmem
2011 png pdf out out out
2012 png pdf out out out
2013 png pdf out out out
2014 png pdf out out out
2015 png pdf out out out
2016 png pdf out out out
2017 png pdf out out out
2018 png pdf out out out
2019 png pdf out out out
2020 png pdf out out out
ACF Diffpngpdf
Code
orig-11.bon, orig-12.bon, orig-13.bon, orig-14.bon, orig-15.bon, orig-16.bon, orig-17.bon, orig-18.bon, orig-19.bon, orig-20.bon,

diff-11.bon, diff-12.bon, diff-13.bon, diff-14.bon, diff-15.bon, diff-16.bon, diff-17.bon, diff-18.bon, diff-19.bon, diff-20.bon,

noaa-11-cos.bon, noaa-12-cos.bon, noaa-13-cos.bon, noaa-14-cos.bon, noaa-15-cos.bon, noaa-16-cos.bon, noaa-17-cos.bon, noaa-18-cos.bon, noaa-19-cos.bon, noaa-20-cos.bon,

acorr.bon, fcorr.bon,


Page Written: January 30, 2018        Last Updated: