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Fitting NOAA data with segments and other beasts (Menne,2006)

   (legenda: l+s=line+sin; pw=piecewise; l=line; nl=non-linear=afit08)   
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Plots using BIC   Bayesan Information Contente.g. Menne, 2006
Yearly averaged anomalies (pdf) (png) NOAA data through August 2013 
Break Points (pdf) (png) NOAA 0813 yearlybreak points (bp)
Residuals (pdf) (png) NOAA 0813 yearlyfrom l;l+s;nl,pw
ACF 12 lags (pdf) (png) 0813: l;l+s;pw residuals
ACF 70 lags (pdf) (png) 0813: l;l+s;pw residuals
Data & Afit08 (pdf) (png) NOAA 0813 yearly afit08
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Data        
Yearly averaged anomalies 0813.dat through August 2013NOAA series
BIC process bicf.out bic params & residualspw;l;l+s,nl
Data fittingof all data l;l+s,pw,nl
  fit1-0813.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^2all,l;
  fit2-0813.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^2all,l+s;
  afit60y.out non-linear fit outputall,nl;
  afit-0813y.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^2all,nl;
  fit2.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^21880-1910
  fit3.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^21911-1945
  fit4.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^21946-1975
  fit5.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^21976-2001
  fit6.out year, (o-c),(o-c)^22002-2013/Aug
Fits parameters poly.app Parameters of all fits
Auto-Correlation Functionof all data (l;l+s;pw;nl) ;pw segments
12 lags acf1-0813.out lag, acf all,l;
  acf2-0813.out lag, acfall,l+s;
  acf-afit.out lag, acfall,nl;
  acf-pw.out lag, acfall,pw;
  acf2.out lag, acf1880-1910
  acf3.out lag, acf1911-1945
  acf4.out lag, acf1946-1975
  acf5.out lag, acf1976-2001
  acf6.out lag, acf2002-2013/Aug
Auto-Correlation Functionof all data (l;l+s;pw,nl)
70 lags acf70-l.out lag, acfall,l;
  acf70-ls.out lag, acfall,l+s;
  acf70-afit.out lag, acfall,nl;
  acf70-pw.out lag, acfall,pw;

Page Written: December 2, 2013        Last Updated: